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We expect sequential declines in consumer services spending over November through January, and now see -1.0% annualized real consumption growth in Q1. Horário de funcionamento: segunda-feira à sexta-feira (exceto feriados), das 9h às 18h; in Canada by either Goldman Sachs Canada Inc. or Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC; in Hong Kong by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. The arguments for strong growth in 2021 still ring true, and any incremental weakness from the virus in the winter will likely be offset by even stronger growth in the spring and summer after the mass distribution of a successful vaccine, where the news has become more positive. Our new growth path implies 2021 GDP growth of +5.0% (vs. +5.3% previously) on a full-year basis, and +5.5% (vs. +5.2% previously) on a Q4/Q4 basis. Exhibit 6 shows a downside scenario where Northeast services activity falls all the way back to May levels, the Midwest and West declines to June levels, and the South declines to July levels. This research is for our clients only. Music. Corporate debt remains below the 2001 peak as a share of corporate cash flows and has declined since the mid-90s as a share of corporate assets. ), a limited partnership registered as a U.S. broker-dealer and futures commission merchant, together with its consolidated subsidiaries (collectively, the firm), is an indirectly wholly owned subsidiary of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (Group Inc.), a Delaware corporation. Transaction costs may be significant in option strategies calling for multiple purchase and sales of options such as spreads. Based on our nowcast estimates, our estimates of the virus impact on the economy, and the headwinds from the reversal of election spending and the timing of Amazon Prime Day, we now estimate Q4 GDP growth of +3.5% (vs. +4.5% previously), and Q1 growth of +1.0% (vs. +3.5% previously). The latter is based on our global team’s finding of a strong negative correlation between changes in temperature and changes in new cases across countries and US states, and the strong seasonality of related common coronaviruses and the flu. While we have taken down our Q4 and Q1 forecasts based on the worsening virus news, the larger drag in the winter should imply an even larger reacceleration after the arrival of a successful vaccine. Goldman Sachs & Co. just announced the smallest number of promotions to managing director since the crisis began in 2008. The Diet That Helped Spencer Matthews Lose 6kg of Body Fat and Build 6-Pack Abs. Goldman, Sachs & Co. No change to an analyst’s fundamental research views (e.g., ratings, price targets, or material changes to earnings estimates for equity securities), will be communicated to any client prior to inclusion of such information in a research report broadly disseminated through electronic publication to our internal client websites or through other means, as necessary, to all clients who are entitled to receive such reports. The larger drag in the winter should imply an even larger reacceleration on the back of mass immunization. Trump’s contributions from Goldman Sachs total less than $7,500. (Company Number: 198602165W); and in the United States of America by Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC. document.writeln("